Pundity punditing
So I made some predictions and based on the provisional results this is how I did:
- National will get between 45 and 47 per cent
- So far they’re on 48% but could come down with specials. I’m giving myself 1/2 here.
- Labour will get between 25 and 27 per cent
- 25%. Boom.
- The Greens will get between 13 and 15 per cent
- This was my massive fail and I’m not sure why the Greens did so badly. That seems to be the REAL story of the election.
- New Zealand First will get between 6 and 8 per cent
- Never underestimate Winston. Never.
- David Seymour will win Epsom, but won’t bring poor Jamie Whyte in with him.
- Nailed it
- Peter Dunne will win Ohariu because he’s Dunne and it’s Dunne County
- Nailed it (despite some protests from certain Labour staffers who were convinced they had this sorted)
- Hone Harawira will win TTT and will bring in Laila Harre.
- So it seems people really hate Kim Dot Com
- Colin Craig will not be in parliament.
- This is probably the most unfair result of the night. Nearly 90,000 people voted for the Conservatives. They will not be represented in parliament.
- Te Ururoa Flavell will win his seat and bring in one more Maori Party MP
- Nailed it
So of the 9 reckons I did, I score myself 5 1/2. That might become a 6 after the special votes, or a 5. Who knows? Who cares? Anyone’s reckons before an event are just that, reckons. They aren’t “knows”, they’re just bullshit yelling by people who have a platform.
Anyway, my feelings about the result is that it was very disappointing that NZ seems to have left its left-wing bloc (that said, we’re still a fairly centrist/left-wing country). I think Labour and the Greens should have a serious chat together and think about how they can maximise their return and start working together now.
