Election Prediction
I hate predictions, but I saw that Danyl made some. So I thought I’d get on board and hazard some guesses:
- National will get between 45 and 47 per cent
- Labour will get between 25 and 27 per cent
- The Greens will get between 13 and 15 per cent
- New Zealand First will get between 6 and 8 per cent
- David Seymour will win Epsom, but won’t bring poor Jamie Whyte in with him.
- Peter Dunne will win Ohariu because he’s Dunne and it’s Dunne County
- Hone Harawira will win TTT and will bring in Laila Harre.
- Colin Craig will not be in parliament.
- Te Ururoa Flavell will win his seat and bring in one more Maori Party MP
Based on the above it looks like the left could actually form a government. But I give that almost no chance. I suspect we’ll end up with the same Government we currently have. National with ACT + UF or the Maori Party.
Think again about the number of seats that may result from this. With ACT and UF, there will be a 2 seat overhang. Meaning a simple majority of 62 is required. Nat, Maori, ACT and UF may not make that on this sort of result, they’re likely to end up with exactly 62. Meaning Winston will be king.
I predict he’ll then coalesce with National and UF, excluding ACT and bring about the fun and games we saw from 96 to 99. A stagnant government, lots of new NZF MPs with power but no sense, and National in disarray.
I think it will be to close to call but if the weather on Saturday is as cold and wet as forecast maybe the Nats will carry it
I hope they do, not because they are better but to watch Bomber self implode
Hi – hope you don’t mind my emailing again – have written song “Dirty POlitics” please pass on to as many as you can and have a listen yourself – you’ll like it – -all the best- bruce – http://youtu.be/dTZdbmXSNWI