Pundity punditing

by Lord Sutch

tarot_card___the_devil_by_cottonvalent-d5b5cjiSo I made some predictions and based on the provisional results this is how I did:

  • National will get between 45 and 47 per cent
    • So far they’re on 48% but could come down with specials. I’m giving myself 1/2 here.
  • Labour will get between 25 and 27 per cent
    • 25%. Boom.
  • The Greens will get between 13 and 15 per cent
    • This was my massive fail and I’m not sure why the Greens did so badly. That seems to be the REAL story of the election.
  • New Zealand First will get between 6 and 8 per cent
    • Never underestimate Winston. Never.
  • David Seymour will win Epsom, but won’t bring poor Jamie Whyte in with him.
    • Nailed it
  • Peter Dunne will win Ohariu because he’s Dunne and it’s Dunne County
    • Nailed it (despite some protests from certain Labour staffers who were convinced they had this sorted)
  • Hone Harawira will win TTT and will bring in Laila Harre.
    • So it seems people really hate Kim Dot Com
  • Colin Craig will not be in parliament.
    • This is probably the most unfair result of the night. Nearly 90,000 people voted for the Conservatives. They will not be represented in parliament.
  • Te Ururoa Flavell will win his seat and bring in one more Maori Party MP
    • Nailed it

So of the 9 reckons I did, I score myself 5 1/2. That might become a 6 after the special votes, or a 5. Who knows? Who cares? Anyone’s reckons before an event are just that, reckons. They aren’t “knows”, they’re just bullshit yelling by people who have a platform.

Anyway, my feelings about the result is that it was very disappointing that NZ seems to have left its left-wing bloc (that said, we’re still a fairly centrist/left-wing country). I think Labour and the Greens should have a serious chat together and think about how they can maximise their return and start working together now.


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